Afseth Millar
Market Intelligence

The Lithium-Ion Battery Roadmap

From the 1 TWh milestone to solid-state horizons — tracking the production scale-up, price revolution, and technology transitions reshaping the world's dominant battery chemistry.

30+ key events 2022–2026 timeline Updated Feb 2026
$108 /kWh
Pack price record low (BNEF 2025)
1+ TWh
Global battery demand (2024)
>80%
China share of cell manufacturing
$150B+
Global market value (2025)
2022
Product Launch
Jun 2022
CATL
Qilin Battery unveiled — 255 Wh/kg NMC, 72% volume efficiency, 1,000 km range
CATL unveiled the Qilin Battery using third-generation cell-to-pack (CTP 3.0) technology. Achieving 255 Wh/kg for NMC cells and a record 72% volume utilisation efficiency, it enabled 1,000 km range on Zeekr's 001 model. A step-change in structural integration.
🇨🇳 China
Production
2022
BYD
Blade Battery production scales — LFP cell-to-pack dominates Chinese EV market
BYD's Blade Battery, using LFP chemistry in a cell-to-pack configuration, became the dominant architecture in China's mass-market EVs. BYD overtook LG Energy Solution to become the world's second-largest battery manufacturer by shipments.
🇨🇳 China
Setback
Sep 2022
Global
Lithium carbonate prices peak at ~$80,000/tonne — 10× increase from 2021
Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices spiked to approximately $80,000/tonne in late 2022, driven by surging EV demand outstripping supply expansion. This triggered urgent diversification into LFP chemistry and alternative cathode materials.
🌍 Global
2023
Product Launch
Apr 2023
CATL
Condensed Battery announced — 500 Wh/kg energy density, targeting aviation
CATL unveiled a 'condensed battery' achieving a single-cell energy density of 500 Wh/kg, using a highly condensed electrolyte. Initially targeting electric aviation, with automotive deployment planned subsequently. The highest energy density announced by any major manufacturer.
🇨🇳 China
Product Launch
Aug 2023
CATL
Shenxing Superfast Charging LFP Battery — world's first 4C LFP, 400 km in 10 min
CATL launched the Shenxing Battery, the world's first LFP battery supporting 4C charging. It delivers 400 km of range in 10 minutes and up to 700 km total range. Targets BYD's LFP dominance. Mass production began Q1 2024.
🇨🇳 China
Chemistry & Next-Gen
2023
Global
LFP overtakes NMC as dominant chemistry globally — 40%+ share of EV batteries
Lithium iron phosphate batteries surpassed nickel manganese cobalt chemistry in global market share for the first time, driven by BYD's Blade Battery and Tesla's adoption of LFP for standard-range vehicles. Cost, safety, and cycle life advantages proved decisive for mass-market EVs.
🌍 Global
Setback
2023
Global
Lithium carbonate prices crash 80%+ from peak — from ~$80k to ~$13k/tonne
Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices collapsed through 2023, falling over 80% from their late-2022 peak. The crash reflected new supply coming online in Australia, Chile, and China alongside moderating EV demand growth. It temporarily undermined the cost case for sodium-ion alternatives.
🌍 Global
2024
Investment
Jan 2024
GM / Samsung SDI
$3B joint venture battery plant announced in Indiana
General Motors partnered with Samsung SDI to establish a $3 billion battery plant in Indiana, expanding localised US production. The facility targets NMC and next-generation prismatic cells for GM's Ultium platform.
🇺🇸 United States
Production
2024
IEA / Global
Global battery demand reaches 1 TWh milestone — 25% growth over 2023
Total battery demand in the energy sector exceeded 1 TWh for the first time in 2024, with EV batteries contributing over 950 GWh. Demand in one average week in 2024 surpassed total annual demand from a decade earlier. EVs accounted for 1 in 5 cars sold globally.
🌍 Global
Production
2024
CATL / BYD / Global
China manufactures 80%+ of global Li-ion battery cells
China's dominance in Li-ion battery manufacturing continued to consolidate, producing well over 80% of all cells globally. CATL maintained its #1 position with ~37% global market share, followed by BYD. Global commissioned manufacturing capacity reached 3.1 TWh — far exceeding actual demand.
🇨🇳 China
Chemistry & Next-Gen
Sep 2024
Imec
Lithium-metal solid-state battery achieves 1,070 Wh/L energy density
Belgian research institute Imec demonstrated a lithium-metal solid-state battery with 1,070 Wh/L volumetric energy density — significantly higher than conventional Li-ion. While still at laboratory scale, it represented a notable advance toward next-generation energy density targets.
🇧🇪 Belgium
Chemistry & Next-Gen
Oct 2024
QuantumScape
QSE-5 solid-state B-samples: 844 Wh/L, 301 Wh/kg, 10–80% in 12 min
QuantumScape began shipping low-volume B-sample QSE-5 solid-state cells to automotive customers. Third-party testing verified 844 Wh/L energy density, 301 Wh/kg gravimetric density, and 10–80% charging in 12.2 minutes. Field testing with vehicles scheduled for 2026.
🇺🇸 United States
Chemistry & Next-Gen
Oct 2024
Samsung SDI
Solid-state battery at 900 Wh/L — mass production targeted for 2027
At InterBattery 2024, Samsung SDI confirmed solid-state battery specifications of 500 Wh/kg and 900 Wh/L volumetric density. Pilot production under way on the 'S-Line' at Suwon, South Korea, with mass production targeted for 2027.
🇰🇷 South Korea
Setback
Nov 2024
Northvolt
Europe's largest battery start-up files for bankruptcy — burning $100M/month
Swedish battery manufacturer Northvolt filed for bankruptcy protection, reportedly burning through $100M per month while struggling with large-scale manufacturing quality issues. BMW had cancelled a $2 billion contract in June 2024. A stark warning for European battery ambitions.
🇸🇪 Sweden
Investment
Dec 2024
Stellantis / CATL
€4.1B joint venture for 50 GWh LFP gigafactory in Zaragoza, Spain
Stellantis and CATL announced a 50/50 joint venture to build a carbon-neutral LFP gigafactory in Zaragoza, Spain, with capacity up to 50 GWh. One of Europe's largest battery manufacturing commitments. Production targeted by end of 2026 using CATL's cell-to-body technology.
🇪🇸 Spain
Production
Dec 2024
BloombergNEF
Battery pack prices fall 20% to $115/kWh — BEV packs below $100/kWh for first time
BloombergNEF's annual price survey found Li-ion pack prices fell 20% year-on-year (the largest drop since 2017) to $115/kWh. BEV-specific packs crossed below $100/kWh for the first time at $97/kWh. Chinese packs averaged $94/kWh vs $139/kWh in Europe.
🌍 Global
Chemistry & Next-Gen
Dec 2024
Chinese Alliance (CATL, BYD, SAIC, Geely)
China forms government-led alliance to accelerate solid-state battery development
China established a government-backed consortium including CATL, BYD, SAIC, and Geely to accelerate solid-state battery development. The alliance aims to pool resources and prevent the technology gap widening with Japanese and Korean competitors.
🇨🇳 China
2025
Production
Feb 2025
CATL
Hong Kong IPO filed — raising $5B+ for Hungary, Spain, and Indonesia expansion
CATL filed for a secondary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange targeting over $5 billion. Cornerstone investors included Sinopec, Kuwait Investment Authority, Hillhouse Investment, and Oaktree. Funds earmarked for gigafactories in Hungary (100 GWh), Spain (50 GWh JV), and Indonesia.
🇭🇰 / 🌍 Global
Product Launch
Mar 2025
Samsung SDI
46-series cylindrical batteries enter production — NCA cathode, SCN anode
Samsung SDI began production of its 46-series cylindrical batteries using advanced NCA cathode and SCN anode technologies. First shipments went to a US micromobility customer. Samsung SDI became the first Korean maker to deliver 46mm-format cells internationally.
🇰🇷 South Korea
Product Launch
Apr 2025
CATL
Freevoy Dual Power Battery — 1,500 km range via dual-core architecture
CATL launched the Freevoy Dual Power Battery with a dual-core architecture splitting the pack into separate energy zones using different chemistries (ternary + LFP). Maximum range exceeds 1,500 km on a single charge — positioning BEVs to match hybrid range for the first time.
🇨🇳 China
Product Launch
Apr 2025
CATL
Shenxing Gen-2 — 12C charging, 520 km in 5 minutes, 800 km range
CATL unveiled the second-generation Shenxing Superfast Charging Battery, with peak charging approaching 12C and power exceeding 1.3 MW. It adds 520 km of range in just 5 minutes on compatible megawatt chargers. Even at −10°C, it charges 5–80% in 15 minutes.
🇨🇳 China
Investment
Apr 2025
LG Energy Solution / Derichebourg
JV for 20,000-tonne/year battery recycling plant in France — operational 2027
LG Energy Solution formed a joint venture with Derichebourg to build a battery recycling plant in northern France with 20,000-tonne annual processing capacity. It reinforces circularity and regulatory compliance under the EU Battery Regulation, with a 2027 opening target.
🇫🇷 France
Investment
Jun 2025
Idemitsu Kosan / Toyota
¥21.3B ($142M) lithium sulphide plant for solid-state batteries — supply to Toyota
Japanese oil giant Idemitsu Kosan announced a ¥21.3 billion investment to build a lithium sulphide production plant, a critical raw material for sulphide-based solid-state batteries. Toyota confirmed as first customer. Backed by Japan's METI, targeting mass production 2027–2028.
🇯🇵 Japan
Chemistry & Next-Gen
Sep 2025
Mercedes-Benz / Factorial Energy
Solid-state prototype EQS drives 749 miles on single charge
A prototype Mercedes-Benz EQS equipped with Factorial Energy's solid-state battery completed a 749-mile drive from Germany to Sweden on a single charge, with 85 miles of range remaining. Mercedes targets road deployment by end of the decade.
🇩🇪 Germany
Chemistry & Next-Gen
Sep 2025
QuantumScape / VW / Ducati
Solid-state batteries debut in Ducati motorcycle at IAA Mobility
QuantumScape and VW's PowerCo showcased solid-state batteries in a Ducati electric motorcycle at the IAA Mobility show in Munich. The cells demonstrated 10–80% charging in 12 minutes. QuantumScape confirmed Falcon production line equipment installation for scaled-up manufacturing.
🇩🇪 / 🇺🇸 Germany / US
Production
Nov 2025
CATL / Stellantis
Zaragoza LFP gigafactory breaks ground — 50 GWh, carbon-neutral, production by end 2026
CATL and Stellantis formally broke ground on the Zaragoza gigafactory. The carbon-neutral plant will use Industry 4.0 smart manufacturing and CATL's cell-to-body technology. Over 80% renewable energy supply. Defect rate target: parts per billion. 4,000 jobs planned.
🇪🇸 Spain
Production
Nov 2025
Qingtao Energy
200 MW/800 MWh semi-solid-state ESS connected to grid in Inner Mongolia
A 200 MW/800 MWh semi-solid-state battery energy storage power station using Qingtao Energy's technology was connected to the grid in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia. Achieves 12,000 cycle life. China's first grid-scale semi-solid-state deployment.
🇨🇳 China
Production
Dec 2025
BloombergNEF
Pack prices fall to $108/kWh — 93% below 2010 levels; storage hits $70/kWh
BNEF's 2025 survey found pack prices fell 8% to a record $108/kWh despite rising metal costs. Stationary storage plummeted 45% to $70/kWh — the lowest segment for the first time. LFP packs averaged $81/kWh vs NMC at $128/kWh. Lowest observed cell price: $36/kWh (LFP).
🌍 Global
Production
2025
IEA / Global
Global market exceeds $150B — 6× deployment vs 2020; 1 in 4 cars sold is electric
The IEA reported the global Li-ion battery market exceeded $150 billion in 2025, with deployment six times the 2020 level. EVs accounted for one in four cars sold globally. Average battery prices fell 8% year-on-year despite rising metal costs.
🌍 Global
2026
Production
2026 (planned)
CATL / Stellantis
Zaragoza gigafactory begins LFP production — 50 GWh capacity
The CATL–Stellantis joint venture in Zaragoza is targeted to begin LFP battery production by end of 2026, supplying cells for Stellantis B- and C-segment BEVs across European plants. One of the first large-scale LFP manufacturing facilities in Europe.
🇪🇸 Spain
Production
2026 (planned)
CATL
Hungary gigafactory ramps to 100 GWh — Europe's largest battery plant
CATL's €7.34 billion Debrecen gigafactory in Hungary is ramping toward 100 GWh annual capacity, making it the largest battery manufacturing plant in Europe. It will supply BMW, Stellantis, and other European OEMs with LFP and NMC cells.
🇭🇺 Hungary
Chemistry & Next-Gen
2026 (expected)
GAC Group
China's first all-solid-state production line — operational
GAC Group became the first automaker to establish an operational all-solid-state battery production line in China. While volumes remain small, it positions China alongside Japan and Korea in the race to industrialise solid-state technology.
🇨🇳 China
Chemistry & Next-Gen
2027–2028 (target)
Toyota / Idemitsu
First solid-state battery-powered Toyota vehicles expected
Toyota maintains its target of deploying sulphide-based solid-state batteries in production vehicles by 2027–2028. The batteries target 1,000 km range with 10-minute charging. Initial volumes will be limited to premium models before scaling. Idemitsu's lithium sulphide plant will supply materials.
🇯🇵 Japan
What to Watch

Price Trajectory

Pack prices have fallen 93% since 2010 to $108/kWh in 2025. BNEF projects further declines to ~$105/kWh in 2026. LFP packs already at $81/kWh; lowest observed cell price just $36/kWh. Cost parity with ICE vehicles achieved in China, approaching in Europe.

Chemistry Shift

LFP has overtaken NMC as the dominant chemistry, driven by cost, safety, and cycle life. LFP now represents 74.6% of Chinese installations. NMC retains advantage in premium/long-range applications. Silicon anodes and lithium-metal anodes are the next frontier for energy density gains.

Solid-State Horizon

Toyota targets 2027–2028 for first production vehicles. Samsung SDI plans mass production by 2027. QuantumScape scaling Falcon line. Current global SSB penetration ~0.1%; IDTechEx projects 4% by 2030, 10% by 2035. Semi-solid already deploying at grid scale in China.

Supply Chain Risk

China produces 80%+ of cells and dominates midstream processing. Europe and US face 44–56% price premiums over Chinese packs. Northvolt's failure and CATL's European JV strategy highlight the tension between sovereignty ambitions and manufacturing reality.